Top IT & cybersecurity trends for 2017

21. 02. 2017 | Komentáre čitateľov [0]

Organizations spend an average of 5.6 percent of the overall IT budget on IT security and risk management, according to the most recent IT Key Metrics Data from Gartner, Inc. However, IT security spending ranges from approximately 1 percent to 13 percent of the IT budget and is potentially a misleading indicator of program success, analysts said. By 2020, 60% of digital businesses will suffer major service failures due to the inability of IT security teams to manage digital risk. Gartner has released a new special report addressing cybersecurity as a critical part of digital business, with its broader external ecosystem and new challenges in an open digital world. The pace of business accelerates to algorithmic speeds and material shifts in culture, behavior and technology are required. Security officers will work more like intelligence officers and trusted advisors as citizen and business-unit IT becomes the dominant model. Organizations will learn to live with digital risk as business units innovate to discover what security they need and what they can afford. Digital ethics, analytics, and people focus will be as important as technical controls. In this webinar you'll learn more about successfully addressing cybersecurity in digital business.

"Clients want to know if what they are spending on information security is equivalent to others in their industry, geography and size of business in order to evaluate whether they are practicing due diligence in security and related programs," said Rob McMillan, research director at Gartner. 

"But general comparisons to generic industry averages don't tell you much about your state of security. You could be spending at the same level as your peer group, but you could be spending on the wrong things and be extremely vulnerable. Alternatively, you may be spending appropriately but have a different risk appetite from your peers," he said. 

According to Gartner, the majority of organizations will continue to misuse average IT security spending figures as a proxy for assessing security posture through 2020.

Without the context of business requirements, risk tolerance and satisfaction levels, the metric of IT security spending as a percentage of the IT budget does not, by itself, provide valid comparative information that should be used to allocate IT or business resources. Moreover, IT spending statistics alone do not measure IT effectiveness and are not a gauge of successful IT organizations. They simply provide an indicative view of average costs, without regard to complexity or demand.

Identifying the "real" security budget

Explicit security spending is generally split among hardware, software, services (outsourcing and consulting) and personnel. However, any statistics on explicit security spending are inherently "soft" because they understate the true magnitude of enterprise investments in IT security, since security features are being incorporated into hardware, software, activities or initiatives not specifically dedicated to security.

Gartner's experience is that many organizations simply do not know their security budget. This is partly because few cost accounting systems break out security as a separate line item, and many security-relevant processes are carried out by staff who are not devoted full-time to security, making it impossible to accurately account for security personnel. In most instances, the chief information security officer (CISO) does not have insight into security spending throughout the enterprise.

To identify the real security budget, there are many places to look, such as networking equipment that has embedded security functions, desktop protection that may be included in the end-user support budget, enterprise applications, outsourced or managed security services, business continuity or privacy programs, and security training that may be funded by HR.

According to Gartner, secure organizations can sometimes spend less than average on security as a percentage of the IT budget. The lowest-spending 20 percent of organizations are composed of two distinctly different types of organizations:

  1. Unsecure organizations that underspend; and
  2. Secure organizations that have implemented best practices for IT operations and security that reduce the overall complexity of the IT infrastructure and work toward reducing the number of security vulnerabilities.

Gartner's view is that enterprises should be spending between 4 and 7 percent of their IT budgets on IT security: lower in the range if they have mature systems, higher if they are wide open and at risk. This represents the budget under the control and responsibility of the CISO, and not the "real" or total budget. 

To demonstrate due care in information security, organizations need to first assess their risks and understand both the CISO's security budget and the "real" security budget found in the complicated range of accounts that may not capture all security spending.

"A CISO who has knowledge of all of the security functions taking place within the organization as well as those that are necessary but missing and the way in which those functions are funded, is likely to use indirectly funded functions to greater advantage," Mr. McMillan said.

Gartner Identifies the Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2017

Gartner defines a strategic technology trend as one with substantial disruptive potential that is just beginning to break out of an emerging state into broader impact and use or which are rapidly growing trends with a high degree of volatility reaching tipping points over the next five years.

"Gartner's top 10 strategic technology trends for 2017 set the stage for the Intelligent Digital Mesh," said David Cearley, vice president and Gartner Fellow. "The first three embrace 'Intelligence Everywhere,' how data science technologies and approaches are evolving to include advanced machine learning and artificial intelligence allowing the creation of intelligent physical and software-based systems that are programmed to learn and adapt. The next three trends focus on the digital world and how the physical and digital worlds are becoming more intertwined. The last four trends focus on the mesh of platforms and services needed to deliver the intelligent digital mesh."

The top 10 strategic technology trends for 2017 are:

AI and Advanced Machine Learning
Artificial intelligence
 (AI) and advanced machine learning (ML) are composed of many technologies and techniques (e.g., deep learning, neural networks, natural-language processing [NLP]). The more advanced techniques move beyond traditional rule-based algorithms to create systems that understand, learn, predict, adapt and potentially operate autonomously. This is what makes smart machines appear "intelligent." 

"Applied AI and advanced machine learning give rise to a spectrum of intelligent implementations, including physical devices (robots, autonomous vehicles, consumer electronics) as well as apps and services (virtual personal assistants [VPAs], smart advisors), said Mr. Cearley. "These implementations will be delivered as a new class of obviously intelligent apps and things as well as provide embedded intelligence for a wide range of mesh devices and existing software and service solutions."

Intelligent Apps
Intelligent apps such as VPAs perform some of the functions of a human assistant making everyday tasks easier (by prioritizing emails, for example), and its users more effective (by highlighting the most important content and interactions). Other intelligent apps such as virtual customer assistants (VCAs) are more specialized for tasks in areas such as sales and customer service. As such, these intelligent apps have the potential to transform the nature of work and structure of the workplace.

"Over the next 10 years, virtually every app, application and service will incorporate some level of AI," said Mr Cearley. "This will form a long-term trend that will continually evolve and expand the application of AI and machine learning for apps and services."

Intelligent Things

Intelligent things refer to physical things that go beyond the execution of rigid programing models to exploit applied AI and machine learning to deliver advanced behaviors and interact more naturally with their surroundings and with people. As intelligent things, such as drones, autonomous vehicles and smart appliances, permeate the environment, Gartner anticipates a shift from stand-alone intelligent things to a collaborative intelligent things model.

Virtual and Augmented Reality
Immersive technologies, such as virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR), transform the way individuals interact with one another and with software systems. "The landscape of immersive consumer and business content and applications will evolve dramatically through 2021," said Mr. Cearley. "VR and AR capabilities will merge with the digital mesh to form a more seamless system of devices capable of orchestrating a flow of information that comes to the user as hyperpersonalized and relevant apps and services. Integration across multiple mobile, wearable, Internet of Things (IoT) and sensor-rich environments will extend immersive applications beyond isolated and single-person experiences. Rooms and spaces will become active with things, and their connection through the mesh will appear and work in conjunction with immersive virtual worlds." 

Digital Twin 
A digital twin is a dynamic software model of a physical thing or system that relies on sensor data to understand its state, respond to changes, improve operations and add value. Digital twins include a combination of metadata (for example, classification, composition and structure), condition or state (for example, location and temperature), event data (for example, time series), and analytics (for example, algorithms and rules).

Within three to five years, hundreds of millions of things will be represented by digital twins. Organizations will use digital twins to proactively repair and plan for equipment service, to plan manufacturing processes, to operate factories, to predict equipment failure or increase operational efficiency, and to perform enhanced product development. As such, digital twins will eventually become proxies for the combination of skilled individuals and traditional monitoring devices and controls (for example, pressure gauges, pressure valves). 

Blockchain and Distributed Ledgers
Blockchain is a type of distributed ledger in which value exchange transactions (in bitcoin or other tokens) are sequentially grouped into blocks. Each block is chained to the previous block and recorded across a peer-to-peer network, using cryptographic trust and assurance mechanisms. Blockchain and distributed-ledger concepts are gaining traction because they hold the promise to transform industry operating models. While the current hype is around the financial services industry, there are many possible applications including music distribution, identity verification, title registry and supply chain. 

"Distributed ledgers are potentially transformative but most initiatives are still in the early alpha or beta testing stage," said Mr. Cearley.

Conversational System
The current focus for conversational interfaces is focused on chatbots and microphone-enabled devices (e.g., speakers smartphones, tablets, PCs, automobiles). However, the digital mesh encompasses an expanding set of endpoints people use to access applicatons and information, or interact with people, social communities, governments, and businesses. The device mesh moves beyond the traditional desktop computer and multiple devices to encompass the full range of endpoints with which humans might interact. As the device mesh evolves, connection models will expand and greater cooperative interaction between devices will emerge, creating the foundation for a new continuous and ambient digital experience.

Mesh App and Service Architecture
In the mesh app and service architecture (MASA), mobile apps, web apps, desktop apps and IoT apps link to a broad mesh of back-end services to create what users view as an "application." The architecture encapsulates services and exposes APIs at multiple levels and across organizational boundaries balancing the demand for agility and scalability of services with composition and reuse of services. The MASA enables users to have an optimized solution for targeted endpoints in the digital mesh (e.g., desktop, smartphone, automobile) as well as a continuous experience as they shift across these different channels. 

Digital Technology Platforms
Digital technology platforms provide the basic building blocks for a digital business and are a critical enabler to become a digital business. Gartner has identified the five major focal points to enable the new capabilities and business models of digital business — information systems, customer experience, analytics and intelligence, the IoT, and business ecosystems. Every organization will have some mix of these five digital technology platforms. The platforms provide the basic building blocks for a digital business and are a critical enabler to become a digital business.

Adaptive Security Architecture

The intelligent digital mesh and related digital technology platforms and application architectures create an ever-more-complex world for security. "Established security technologies should be used as a baseline to secure Internet of Things platforms," said Mr. Cearley. "Monitoring user and entity behavior is a critical addition that is particularly needed in IoT scenarios. However, the IoT edge is a new frontier for many IT security professionals creating new vulnerability areas and often requiring new remediation tools and processes that must be factored into IoT platform efforts."


Top Predictions for IT Organizations and Users in 2017 and Beyond

"Gartner's top strategic predictions continue to offer a provocative look at what might happen in some of the most critical areas of technology evolution. At the core of future outcomes is the notion of digital disruption, which has moved from an infrequent inconvenience to a consistent stream of change that is redefining markets and entire industries," said Daryl Plummer, managing vice president, chief of research and Gartner Fellow. "Last year, we said digital changes were coming fast. This year the acceleration continues and may cause secondary effects that have wide-ranging impact on people and technology."

By 2020, 100 million consumers will shop in augmented reality.

The popularity of augmented reality (AR) applications, such as Pokémon GO, will help bring AR into the mainstream, prompting more retailers to incorporate it into the shopping experience. As mobile device usage becomes an ingrained behavior, further blurring the lines between the physical and digital worlds, brands and their retail partners will need to develop mechanisms to leverage this behavior to enhance the shopping experience. Using AR applications to layer digital information — text, images, video and audio — on top of the physical world, represents one such route to deeper engagement, both in-store and in other locations. For example, a consumer pointing the IKEA catalog app at a room in his home can "place" furniture where he'd like it to go. This real-world element differentiates AR apps from those offering virtual reality (VR).

By 2020, 30 percent of web browsing sessions will be done without a screen.

New audio-centric technologies, such as Google Home and Amazon's Echo, are making access to dialogue-based information ubiquitous and spawning new platforms based on "voice-first" interactions. By eliminating the need to use ones' hands and eyes for browsing, vocal interactions extend the utility of web sessions to contexts such as driving, cooking, walking, socializing, exercising and operating machinery. As a result, the share of waking hours devoid of instant access to online resources will approach zero.

By 2019, 20 percent of brands will abandon their mobile apps.

Many brands are finding that the level of adoption, customer engagement and return on investment (ROI) delivered by their mobile applications are significantly less than the expectations that underpinned their app investment. New approaches are emerging that have a lower barrier to discovery and install, and offer levels of engagement that approach those of applications at a fraction of the investment, support and marketing cost. Many companies will evaluate these experiences against their under-performing applications and opt to reduce their losses by allowing their apps to expire.  

By 2020, algorithms will positively alter the behavior of more than 1 billion global workers.
Contextualization algorithms have advanced exponentially to include a variety of behavioral interventions such as psychology, social neuroscience and cognitive science. Human beings tend to be emotionally charged and factually drained, causing them to be irrational. Algorithms can positively alter that behavior by augmenting their intelligence with the large collective memory bank containing knowledge that has been socialized and put to the test. This will help workers "remember" anything or be informed of just-in-time knowledge that they have never even experienced, leaving them to objectively complete the task at hand but also to better appreciate life as it unveils. Use of algorithms can raise alarms of "creepiness," however, when used to effect positive outcomes, it can bring about changes to multiple industries.

By 2022, a blockchain-based business will be worth $10 billion.
Blockchain technology is established as the next revolution in transaction recording. A blockchain ledger provides an immutable, shared view of all transactions between engaging parties. Parties can therefore immediately act on a committed blockchain record, secure in the knowledge that it cannot be changed. Any kind of value exchange can happen in minutes, not days. Blockchain applications can free up cash, reduce transaction costs, and accelerate business processes. While blockchain development is still immature, it is attracting product and capital investment.

By 2021, 20 percent of all activities an individual engages in will involve at least one the top-seven digital giants.
The current top-seven digital giants by revenue and market capitalization are Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon, Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent. As the physical, financial and healthcare world becomes more digital, many of the activities an individual engages in will be connected. This convergence means that any activity could include one of the digital giants. Mobile apps, payment, smart agents (e.g., Amazon Alexa), and digital ecosystems (e.g., Apple HomeKit, WeChat Utility and City Services) will make the digital giants part of many of the activities we do.

Through 2019, every $1 enterprises invest in innovation will require an additional $7 in core execution.
For many enterprise, adopting a bimodal IT style to jump-start innovation has been a priority and critical first step. Close alignment of Mode 1 and 2 teams is crucial to the realization of the digital business goals. Unfortunately, the deployment costs of the Mode 2 "ideated solution" are not necessarily considered during ideation, and for most, the Mode 1 costs are not factored into the initial funding. Designing, implementing, integrating, operationalizing, and managing the ideated solution can be significantly more than the initial innovation costs. Thus, Gartner anticipates that for every $1 spent on the digital innovation/ideation phase, enterprises will spend on average $7 for deploying the solution.

Through 2020, IoT will increase data center storage demand by less than 3 percent.
The Internet of Things (IoT) has enormous potential for data generation across the roughly 21 billion endpoints expected to be in use in 2020. Of the roughly 900 exabytes worth of data center hard-disk drive (HDD) and solid-state drive (SSD) capacity forecast to ship in 2020, IoT discrete sensor storage will represent only 0.4 percent, with storage from multimedia sensors consuming another 2 percent, for a rounded total of 2.3 percent. This indicates that IoT can scale and deliver important data-driven business value and insight, while remaining manageable from a storage infrastructure standpoint. 

By 2022, IoT will save consumers and businesses $1 trillion a year in maintenance, services and consumables.
The IoT holds enormous promise in reducing the cost of maintenance and consumables. The challenge lies in providing a secure, robust implementation that can deliver savings over one or two decades, without driving management costs that absorb any savings made. This could be an inexpensive monitoring system based on simple sensors that report defining characteristics to analytical servers. The analytics are used to spot patterns in the fleet data, and recommend maintenance based on actual usage and condition, not based on elapsed time or estimated condition. At the other extreme, there is the rise of the digital twin. The digital twin captures near real-time data feeds from its sensor-enhanced real-world twin, and uses this along with other data sources (e.g., weather, historian data, algorithms, smart machine analysis) to update its simulation to reflect the physical state of the twin. 

By 2020, 40 percent of employees can cut their healthcare costs by wearing a fitness tracker.

Companies will increasingly appoint fitness program managers to work closely with human resource leaders to include fitness trackers in wellness programs as part of a broader employee engagement initiative. Healthcare providers can save lives and downstream costs by acting on the data from wearable fitness trackers that show health risks to the user. Wearables provide a wealth of data to be analyzed either in real-time or in retrospect with the potential for doctors and other healthcare professionals to have access to both contextual and historical information, if the patient agrees to share it. 


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