PREDICTIONS IDC

13. 02. 2013 | Komentáre čitateľov [0]

The most important events in 2013 will cluster — as they did in 2012 — around what IDC calls the "3rd Platform" for IT growth and innovation, built on mobile devices, cloud services, social technologies, and Big Data. We'll see much greater urgency in 2013, and much bigger moves, as the market shifts beyond the "exploration" stage to full-blown high-stakes competition. The ability (or inability) to compete on the 3rd Platform will reset leadership ranks in the IT market and every industry that uses IT.

*Worldwide IT spending: 2013 spending will exceed $2.1 trillion, up 5.7% from 2012, driven by double-digit growth in the 3rd Platform foundations of mobile, cloud, Big Data, and social technologies — and by emerging markets’ growth.

* Emerging markets: IT spending will grow by 8.8% to over $730 billion — twice developed markets’ growth, 34% of all IT spending, and 51% of all IT growth.

*Mobile devices: Sales of smart mobile devices (SMDs) — smartphones and tablets — will grow by 20%, generate 20% of all IT sales, and drive 57% of all IT market growth. Without SMDs, IT industry growth will be just 2.9%.

*Tablet surge driven by minis: Mini tablets (sub-8in. screens) will account for as much as 60% of unit shipments — a remarkable leap from just 33% in 2012.

*Year of reckoning in mobile software: Mobile platforms that fail to crack the 50% barrier of developers that are “very interested” in developing apps for them will be on a gradual track to demise. Microsoft now sits at 33%; RIM sits at 9%.

*Accelerated SaaS shopping spree: There will be over $25 billion in SaaS acquisitions over the next 20 months, up from $17 billion in the past 20 months.

*Rise of “industry platform as a service (PaaS)”: The number of industryfocused public cloud services platforms — less than 100 in 2012 — will increase tenfold by 2016, while “horizontal” PaaS will become more commoditized.

*Growing importance of line-of-business (LOB) executives: By 2016, 80% of new IT investments will directly involve LOB executives, with LOBs the lead decision makers in half or more of those investments.

*3rd Platform datacenter disruptions: Converged systems and softwaredefined
networks will drive growth and open the door for market share upheaval.

*“Bring your own ID”: (BYOID) will bring consumerization into enterprise security.

*Big Data: from search to discovery and prediction: Big Data M&A will cluster in visual discovery, predictive analytics, and text and rich media analytics.

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